Swipe right, you won't regret it!!

2021.10.27 12:37 ClowishFeatures Swipe right, you won't regret it!!

Swipe right, you won't regret it!! submitted by ClowishFeatures to HouseOfTheMemeMaker [link] [comments]

2021.10.27 12:37 lmorse98 Feeling lost in new job after college

Hello I’m 23yr old. I graduated this year in May 21. After graduation I took a road trip around the USA and had the trip of a lifetime. I was back home in early july and was about to start a new chapter in my life. During the month of July I was just looking for jobs and enjoying my summer. Also to add in, I got my real estate license in May before I graduated as a backup and because I love real estate. I had trouble finding a job online during the month of July and august. I’m living at home so I didn’t have financial pressure. At the end of august my brother ended up getting me a job at his workplace. I’ve been working here for about 2 months and absolutely hate it. I always told my family the 9-5 work environment is not for me. I am an entrepreneur and just know this isn’t right for me. My parents want me to have a 9-5 for the security and so I can support myself. This past year I’ve been working on day trading and getting my real estate license as ways to avoid the 9-5 job format. My current job pays well but i really hate every minute of it and the toxic environment I work in. I really want to quit and try a new path but I don’t know where to go from here. Any advice is welcomed… thank you
submitted by lmorse98 to LifeAfterSchool [link] [comments]

2021.10.27 12:37 GothicNet An Enthralling Mermaid – Halloween Makeup Tutorial

An Enthralling Mermaid – Halloween Makeup Tutorial submitted by GothicNet to GothicNet [link] [comments]

2021.10.27 12:37 metalhoernchen Prehistoric fleshlight

Prehistoric fleshlight submitted by metalhoernchen to dontputyourdickinthat [link] [comments]

2021.10.27 12:37 freddiemayforreal on the way to catch some ghosties

on the way to catch some ghosties submitted by freddiemayforreal to Phasmaphobia [link] [comments]

2021.10.27 12:37 Turkeyismyfavvfood Doing this is very risky

Doing this is very risky submitted by Turkeyismyfavvfood to memes [link] [comments]

2021.10.27 12:37 united-verdict-bot Unanimous "Not the A-hole" with 5 votes

submitted by united-verdict-bot to AmITheA_holeUnanimous [link] [comments]

2021.10.27 12:37 inmoon ریمیکس جدید موجا بند با عنوان “دارم عاشق میشم” – Moja Band Daram Ashegh Misham

submitted by inmoon to Hotzz [link] [comments]

2021.10.27 12:37 Monkey_DM Feat: Blighted Blood - When you take being toxic to a whole new extreme

submitted by Monkey_DM to UnearthedArcana [link] [comments]

2021.10.27 12:37 Gumpsby Just tryna enjoy my day

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2021.10.27 12:37 Joey1daddy Concessions - G85 / 12-60 Kit Lens

submitted by Joey1daddy to M43 [link] [comments]

2021.10.27 12:37 TraditionalGoal422 👹DiabloNomics $DIABLO | Fair Launch ✅ | massive potential

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submitted by TraditionalGoal422 to SatoshiBets [link] [comments]

2021.10.27 12:37 saadusafxai Where is this from

Where is this from submitted by saadusafxai to manhwa [link] [comments]

2021.10.27 12:37 KimJonSnow Does Anyone Know Why YVH Doesn't Sell Hopsteiner Hops?

I recent noticed that YVH doesnt sell hops like Lotus, Calypso, or Lemondrop. I looked into this a little and it looks like Hopsteiner bred and owns those hops. So is Hopsteiner not allowing resellers like YVH sell these? I know John I Haas recently bought YVH so maybe it has something to do with that? Does anyone have any inside knowledge on this?
submitted by KimJonSnow to Homebrewing [link] [comments]

2021.10.27 12:37 captnamurica2 Inflationary Depression (Part 3): Time to Make Money

Inflationary Depression (Part 3): Time to Make Money Taking what I have written in Parts 1 and Part 2 (you can view each by clicking the links). Part 1 is about the Everything Bubble, and Part 2 is about Inflation before Recession. I think we have enough information to figure out how to make strategic bets to protect ourselves from the impending increased inflation and the governments response to the inflation.
The Economic Environment
Interest rates have bottomed, as was explained in Part 1 and Part 2. We have put more Government money into the economy than any other time and we have increased M2 more than any other time in history.
Well, in response we have gotten an economy that cannot handle the amount of demand that it has produced. The output gap produced (as was discussed in Part 2) has resulted in shortages across the board. This has given us inflation that the government had not prepared for (who could have predicted all this government spending would lead to inflation). Consumers are picking up steam with the latest data showing a huge increase in houses bought, consumer confidence increasing, delivery times picking up, input price increases and working demanding more pay.

Chart 1. Delivery Times (Along with Input and Output Prices) along with Core CPI Inflation showing a clear correlation
As you can see shortages are causing huge increases in delivery times and prices (with core inflation skyrocketing an important tool to try to predict what the Fed will do). Now how can we tell this is a fiscal stimulus problem? Because the US is the only one experiencing problems on the scale we are seeing here in the United States and the United States were the only ones to stimulate the economy in the extreme fashion that we did.

Shortages and Inflation are much more extreme in the US due to Fiscal Stimulus
With basically every consumer goods company reporting shortages with insane demand which is coupled with the great resignation (discussed in Part 2) we have workers working in overdrive while not having wages that are keeping up with inflation. This has caused strikes across the board in what media is calling “striketober” as workers demand better conditions and more pay (this is extremely important). This could be the start of an unanchoring inflationary event known as the wage cost spiral. This is when workers expect more money to make up for their losses from inflation, this leads to higher input costs, which leads to higher output prices/higher inflation. This creates a feedback loop that can cause inflation to become unanchored in a negative manner. This is something we must keep a close look on. I believe if the John Deere strike results in success and they get higher pay, we could see more workers take notice and request higher pay across the country (I believe that strike specifically is the most important to pay attention to).

Just Some Worker Strikes
Now where are we seeing shortages and increased expenses? Well basically everywhere, from semiconductors, to food, to fertilizer, to precious metals (such as magnesium, steel, aluminum), commodities (coal, natural gas, oil), coffee, housing, paper pulp (Paper is up roughly 50% from last year and experts expect another toilet paper shortage along with books), LumbeWood again, HVAC systems, Chicken, and the list just keeps going.
Why this isn’t transitory and could become dangerous
Well, we just need to wait on the pandemic right, this is just supply chain kinks, right? Wrong, if you look at the above charts, Charts 1 and 2, you will see where the supply kinks fixed themselves around March. What we are seeing is demand driven shortages due to an economy operating at a pace that it literally cannot handle especially with a drop in potential GDP (Part 2). This demand is now hitting us due to pent up savings (discussed in Part 1 and Part 2), and the previously discussed fiscal stimulation (Part 1 and 2), and Covid coming to an end in the eyes of consumers. This is also the first Covid free Holiday season being celebrated by most Americans in almost 2 years. We are seeing shortages pick up in SeptembeOctober because consumers are worried about inflation/shortages and are starting to pick up the inflationary mindset (Part 2), another possibly dangerous unanchoring event that we must pay attention to. So how do we make money on this? (I know you’re just thinking “Finally!!!!”)
The United States Treasury Bond
As discussed in Part 1and Part 2, the US has been increasing M2 at a breakneck pace and the economy has gotten near levels that the Fed will consider “tapering” or the reduction of Quantitative Easing (Part 1). What this means is that the money supply will stop growing as fast, as the government stops buying bonds to flush markets with cash (that’s basically all QE is). Now, for those of you who do not know, there is a correlation between treasury bond prices and treasury bond yields. They work inverse so when bond prices go up, bond yields go down and vice versa. Well, when the Fed begins to reduce its bond buying this will cause bond prices to go down as result to a reduction in demand. When the prices of bonds go down yields go up (This will be discussed more in another paragraph). This causes a double effect of not only decreasing the money supply by reducing bond buying, but it also causes a decrease in the money supply by increasing rates. And based on our core inflation readings from earlier with the shortages getting worse, I think it is safe to say that tapering will begin on November 2nd. This is why the 60-40 rule of stocks to bonds is now longer good risk management because stocks and bond now move
Currently private investors are not buying treasuries, and neither are banks (as of recently). The only large buyer of bonds currently is the Federal Reserve meaning that there is no demand at current levels if the Fed stops buying, leading to a reduction in bond prices. This is where we will begin the thesis for our short on 20 year treasury shortages in the form of the $TLT ETF. As tapering decreases we will see TLT increase to the long term inflation expectation rate of roughly 3% (this will increase as inflation increases of course, this expectation can easily change with inflation fears). Current 20 year bond rates are at about 1.7% today, which means we can expect at a minimum, an increase of about 1% in 20 year bond yields when tapering begins to reduce. A 1% change in bond yields leads to about an 18%-20% decrease of TLT (Remember this is the minimum amount it will drop from just tapering).
As investor fears about inflation picks up, this could cause rates to increase faster, as less investors want bonds so they demand a higher yield. This also does not take into account the Federal Reserve moving up its timetable for a federal fund rate hike which would lead to a money crunch and a further increase in bond yields as demand reduces. So a short on TLT is one investment I think is a good move since I see a minimum drop of roughly 20% (or a buy on TBT which just works as inverse). These are 2 vehicles I would look into for investing against inflation.
This could’ve had more detail but I think it gets the point across, if you have questions please comment below.
An Asset Crunch
As I said before, stocks and bonds have moved in tandem in recent years. This new correlation is why you should also begin to short stocks. Well first let’s discuss why they move in tandem. It’s because the yield of a treasury bond is the discount rate used by the market. If there is confidence in the dollaFed, then companies will use this as their discount rate. So, when interest rates increase, the value of all stocks decrease due to this discount rate, it also acts as a money crunch since less money would be borrowed. Also tapering is decreasing as well, which has the double effect of increasing rates and reducing the money supply. So obviously this would normally only cause a small effect on stocks, unless they are in a bubble (or overleveraged). As we learned in Part 1, stocks and houses, are in a bubble. Now why would stocks in a bubble be a larger cause to worry. Well stocks in a bubble, act as a Ponzi Scheme. Now bear with me for a moment while I explain. A bubble is when an asset ignores its underlying intrinsic value and people simply invest in it because someone else will invest in it leading the asset price to increase. A bubble implies that individuals aren’t paying attention to the business, they are expecting to make a return based on the sole reason that someone else will want to buy the stock, not anything to do with the underlying business. Now when the money supply decreases or the discount rate increases, there is no next man up to pay for the asset. As with a ponzi scheme, when there are no more buyers everyone begins dumping their shares because it is now impossible for the asset price to keep growing and if something isn’t growing (especially in an inflationary environment) this will lead to a total collapse of the price until it becomes something worth of value.
This doesn’t include price pressures put on by shortages or the volatility that can be created by options. I suggest anyone who is reading this to read the thread by @ thelastbearsta1 on twitter regarding volatility. This explains why an asset crash will not be as long as the bubble burst in ’99 but will be a sudden and flash crash among stocks in a bubble (along with the fact that option buying is at all time high levels, possibly causing reverse gamma squeezes). My personal choices for these “bubble stocks” are Tesla (if you’re about to argue with me on this, think about the fact that Tesla went up 100 billion on a 4 billion revenue, not profit, contract), almost any EV company, Roku (this is one of my favorites), new tech IPO’s, ARKK fund (Basically the biggest bubbles that are expecting more growth, that higher interest rates won’t allow), some space companies (or other government contracted companies due to the government having to pay more interest on future debt), and many more. These companies are not necessarily bad companies, I think Tesla is a great company and managed well by Elon Musk, but it is in a massive bubble and there’s no way investors are expecting meaningful returns from the business. As well as those companies, you should also look at any company overvalued based on a huge amount of debt where they are taking on more debt to grow (an interest increase causes debt to get much more expensive). I also suggest finding value investments as they thrive in a higher interest rate environment while growth stocks suffer, one of my favorites is DISCK which is merging with Warner Bros (A spin off of AT&T) , but I would wait until DISCK finds some solid support.
These are the companies I would investigate and then identify the best choices, I don’t have DD for these suggestions which is why you should not invest without doing your own due diligence!!! Details were skipped here obviously but I am giving you the overall idea of why I have gone short on certain positions, and I am relying on you to dig deeper or find some DD as it would take me a long time to go into each individual stock.
We have got to capitalize on Shortages
Shortages are also a great place to find gains, although most ETF’s regarding commodities are already at extremely high levels. We should also look at companies that are still set to benefit, I really like SXC, OVV, and STNG. We have some great DD on those 3 stocks on BurryEdge if anyone would like to look more into those stocks, as they are all undervalued stocks. OVV is a natural gas and oil company, meanwhile STNG is a petroleum transportation company. Both have great write ups and are companies I am personally invested in (I’ve made roughly 25% in just stocks from those 2 and I believe they have more upside). SXC is an investment in coke steel plants (a great way to take advantage of steel when scrap prices are high). Some of the ideas that has been discussed are ideas in the food industry as well. Another way to capitalize on this is in a retailer that has prepped for shortages and are in an advantageous position such as WMT, a stock I have written DD for as well, and you can read more information on why I believe they are specially built for a shortage’s environment in the coming months. Just be on the lookout for shortages and honestly following shortages to follow future trends is probably not the worst idea. If you can get ahead of a shortages curve you can make a lot of money. Once again, I could have written much more but our community has other written pieces out there going in more detail, and I have given you the overall thesis for things to look into. If I were to jump into individual stocks I would take up way too much room.
Overall, in summary, inflation is here to stay, and we need to protect ourselves against it. I wish each of you good luck and I hope the information I have provided will help all of you achieve more financial freedom. I’m sorry for any spelling mistakes or grammatical errors, I hope it did not take away from the information given.
Remember I am not a professional nor do I claim to be. This is not investment advice, but merely musings from an amateur investor. I have positions in most of the positions listed above, they are through different types of securities such as Calls, Puts, and Stocks. If you choose to invest in any of these positions, you should inform yourself and do proper Due Diligence . The decision to invest in any position is yours and yours alone.
A special thanks to everyone who has followed and supported me through this 3-part series.
Thanks to all of you who followed my series, as I thoroughly enjoyed all of this. I found all material independently and I received feedback from the BurryEdge community, they have helped me form my thesis on inflation and have given various stock ideas to help make money against it, so if you’re interested in this material, please join that community (In regards to the paragraph regarding stocks and interest rates, I would expect BurryEdge to produce more DD’s on different bubbles over the coming months). Thanks to all of you who have supported me through the toxic/rude feedback and a special thank you to all of those who critiqued me in a respectful manner and helped me look at new perspectives.
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2021.10.27 12:37 kene96 WTS Menu Ps5

WTS D2R Non ladder PS5 Menu
⚪️ Runeword Bases - 3os Eth Thresher - 4os Eth Wyrmhide - 5os Flail x2 - 4os Scythe - 4os Colossus Voulge - 4os Crystal Sword - 3os Light Plate 🟡 Unique Items - Andariel’s Visage - Thundergod’s Vigor - Thunderstroke - Boneshade - Carin Shade - Jalal’s Mane - Earthshaker (+3 to ele druid) - Chance Guards - Magefist x2 - Ormus (3 to Lightning & 15% light skill damage) - Que-Hegan’s Wisdom - Eth Que-Hegan’s Wisdom - Goldwrap x2 - Infernostride - Wizardspike x2 - Blade of Alibaba x2 - String of Ears x2 - Frostburn x2 - Soul Drainer - Nightsmoke - Bartuc’s Cut-Throat x2 - Demonhorn’s Edge - Halabreds Reign - Vampire Gaze 🟢Set Items - IK Boots x3 - IK Gauntlets x3 - IK Maul x3 - IK Helm - IK Belt - Aldur Weapon x2 - Natalya Boots - Natalya Helm - M’avina Gloves - M’avina Belt x2 - Tal Rasha Mask - Tal Rasha Belt - Tal Rasha Weapon - Trang Gloves - Trang Armor - Trang Helm - Griswold Helm - Griswold Armor 🟠Miscellaneous - Greeds Charm - Highlords Wrath Amu - Nagelring x3 - Manald Heal x3 - Raven Frost x2 - Nokozans Relic - The rising sun - Summon Druid Skiller x2 - Assn Trap Skiller - Martial Art Skiller - Blue Essence x16 - Yellow Essence x9 - Red essence - Rainbow Facet x3(-5 +5 poison, -5 +3 Poison, -4 +3 Lightning - PGems x100 ⚫️ Runes - Ist - Mal - Fal x2 - Pul x2 - Runes submitted by kene96 to D2R_Marketplace [link] [comments]

2021.10.27 12:37 constantstresss Rank up

Managed to hit vanquisher without ever labbing my Lars still amazed.
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2021.10.27 12:37 inmoon دانلود ریمیکس محمد دستجردی “گره کور” – Mohammad Dastjerdi Gerehye Koor

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2021.10.27 12:37 RWolfiie Spider demon

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2021.10.27 12:37 Darrell_Goodman15 Nice quality and Love the design!!!!

Nice quality and Love the design!!!! submitted by Darrell_Goodman15 to dhmtb [link] [comments]

2021.10.27 12:37 Dudeguygamer Gigabyte mobo 3-pin fan control?

Planning on building a PC with a Gigabyte motherboard with 4-pin fan headers only, while the fans bundled with my selected case are 3-pin and lack PWM support. Do Gigabyte's motherboards usually have an option for voltage-based fan control, or will I have to just leave the fans uncontrolled?
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2021.10.27 12:37 Embarrassed-Steak372 Somebody dumped

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2021.10.27 12:37 Disc0K Should French be nerfed?

The amount of early access players spamming French for “ggez elo” is kind of… disappointing.
Before the 25th, there was a lot of speculation that Mongols and the Rus would be the most powerful Civs out of the gate, followed by HRE, English Abbasid and French. There’s no doubt that Rus are very strong in the right hands, but Mongols have proven to struggle on most maps.
The French almost seem to have it easy on every map, with great land eco bonuses and decent water play as well. They are the only civ that has eco bonuses that come in to play literally immediately, with faster vill spawn and cheaper drop off sites. On top of that they get age 2 knights (with unique bonuses), incredibly powerful unique crossbow units and siege options galore to carry them into late game and all of their landmark options are powerful, some even reducing the cost of their best units significantly.
I’m not sure if they are totally over powered, since it’s still early and technically pre-release. But I’m going to go out on a limb and say this civ is too easy, even more so than English with way better bonuses. What do you think, fellow Redditors?
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2021.10.27 12:37 trollingmotors Cher - Gimme! Gimme! Gimme! [Extended Mix]

Cher - Gimme! Gimme! Gimme! [Extended Mix] submitted by trollingmotors to 2010sMusic [link] [comments]

2021.10.27 12:37 AggressiveMushroom69 Vong question

So the vong I got was set to have no airflow which I’m okay with cause I can just drop it in my rig and rip it but I can’t get it apart or even adjust the airflow cause it’s so tight, any suggestions?
submitted by AggressiveMushroom69 to Dynavap [link] [comments]